Contours of new Trade Map coming into focus as Asia for Asia gains momentum: HSBC survey

• 53% of Singapore businesses and 41% of firms in Asia are increasing reliance in Southeast Asia
• Compared to six months ago, businesses in Singapore are showing greater supply chain resilience and risk management confidence
• Despite continued global trade uncertainty, 79% of Singapore businesses remain optimistic on growing trade over the next two years

More than six months after the “Liberation Day tariffs” were announced, firms in Asia are showing signs of adaption and stabilisation; their concerns around revenue have eased; and a new trade map is shaping up. Furthermore, certain markets in Asia report that recent trade-policy shifts are boosting rather than hindering their short-term growth.

According to the newly released HSBC Global Trade Pulse report, more than 2 in 3 (68%) of Asian respondents feel more certain about the impact of trade policy than they did six months ago. With the tariff dust beginning to settle, firms in Asia expect supply-chain disruption to have a slightly lower impact on revenue than six months ago. On average, Asian respondents forecast a 13% negative impact on revenue over the next two years, down from 18% in the first Trade Pulse survey from approximately six months ago.

Aditya Gahlaut, Regional Head of Global Trade Solutions, Asia at HSBC, comments: “Our research data suggest that companies in Asia are adapting to the new environment. Though their concerns around revenue have eased slightly, they remain alert to risks. Tariff uncertainty has galvanised Asia, while a growing sense of certainty is enabling companies across the region to make more informed decisions and plan ahead.”

Singapore businesses show resilience and optimism

The survey, conducted in October 2025, included responses from 6,750 corporates across 17 markets, with 250 responses from businesses based in Singapore. Despite a slight dip in confidence from six months ago (83%), nearly four in five (79%) Singapore businesses remain optimistic about growing international trade over the next two years. Additionally, over half (57%) of Singapore businesses are more certain about trade policy affecting their business than they were 6 months ago.

The percentage of Singapore businesses expecting significant revenue loss of over 15% from supply chain disruptions has decreased sharply from 72% to 40% over the past six months, indicating enhanced risk management and resilience.

Runa Baksi, Head of Southeast Asia, Global Trade Solutions at HSBC, “In today’s rapidly evolving trade landscape, supporting our clients through uncertainties is more crucial than ever. The HSBC Trade Pulse Survey highlights the resilience and optimism of businesses in Singapore, and we are committed to empowering them with the tools and insights needed to navigate these challenges. Our global network is a formidable asset and by leveraging this strength, we can help our clients seize opportunities and drive growth, ensuring they remain competitive and successful in the face of global trade uncertainties.”

While 78% of businesses anticipate increased costs due to tariffs and trade uncertainties, firms in Singapore remain confident of their long-term growth and strategy, with over 1 in 2 having plans to enter into new markets (53%), diversify their revenue streams (51%) or rebalancing their product or service mix (57%).

In terms of markets, Singapore businesses are increasing sales in key markets such as Malaysia, Australia, India, mainland China, and Japan. Notably, 29% of businesses in the TMT sector are expanding sales in Malaysia, significantly above the global average of 12%.

Asia for Asia Gains Momentum

As the tariff landscape becomes clearer, a new trade map is shaping up, with Asian firms dialling up their focus on Asia in their trade strategy. Among Asian firms, 41% plan to increase reliance on Southeast Asia; 34% plan to increase reliance on East and North Asia; and 29% plan to increase reliance on South Asia.

Likewise in Singapore, more than 1 in 2 (53%) Singapore businesses are notably more likely to increase reliance on Southeast Asia (18 pts higher than the global average). This shift is driven by Singapore’s largest firms ($2bn+ turnover), which show stronger regional focus at 56%.

Other regions where Singapore businesses are planning to increase reliance on include East/North Asia (includes mainland China, Japan, Hong Kong, South Korea and Taiwan) at 47%, South Asia (includes India, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka) at 45% and Oceania and Europe at 36% respectively.

Ms Baksi, added, “What has been increasingly certain from this tariff situation, is the growth and potential of Southeast Asia as a trading bloc and Singapore’s role as a trading hub for the region. We should expect to see more intra-Asia and intra-ASEAN trade in the years ahead and as Singapore’s best trade finance bank , we are excited to be at the heart of this opportunity.“

Click here to access the full report.

Media enquiries to:

Andrew Low | +65 9658 3441 | andrew.low@hsbc.com.sg

Clarabelle Tan | +65 94513329 | clarabelle.h.y.tan@hsbc.com.sg